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Business Nugget by Robert Morris Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View was published in 1991 by Currency Doubleday and it is now available in a paperback edition. It has been widely praised because, as Stewart Brand suggests, The Art of the Long View ensures that "you may not always be right about the future but -- better -- that you are almost never wrong about the future." Chairman of the Global Business Network, Schwartz is one of the world's leading futurists. His writing is as clear and crisp as his thinking. Also, his comments and suggestions are anchored in extensive real-world experience. His objective is to explain the process of what he calls "scenario-building" which enables managers to "invent and then consider, in depth, several varied stories of equally plausible futures" so that they can make (in his words) "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it -- and influential in it -- if you have thought seriously about scenarios." Managers of companies (regardless of size or nature) are already aware of constant change within their competitive marketplace. Recent developments, notably use of the Internet to expedite globalization, suggest that change will occur progressively faster and have progressively greater impact, both positive and negative. Meanwhile, for obvious reasons, managers of companies face daily situations and circumstances that require immediate attention and, more often than not, they must quickly make decisions that have profound implications. As a result managers find it very difficult to see "the larger picture", to maintain a "long-term perspective." What to do? Here is the process Schwartz recommends:
Step Two: List the Key Micro-Factors Relevant to that Issue or Decision (e.g. budget, nature of offer, mailing list, response rate) Step Three: List the Key Macro-Driving Forces (e.g. competition initiatives, demographics, national economy) Step Four: Cross-Rank Factors and Forces in Terms of Importance and Uncertainty (i.e. priorities and relative predictability) Step Five: Select Scenario Logic (i.e. formulate a single-axis spectrum, dual-axis matrix, or three-axis multiple within which to organize Factors and Forces for up to three scenarios) Step Six: Flesh out Scenarios (in as much detail as possible) Step Seven: Identify Probable Implications ("What if?") Step Eight: Select Leading Indicators and Signposts (to identify which scenario now seems most probable) "How do we do all this?" is a reasonable question. The answer can be
found in The Art of the Long View.
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